What is known about the battles and evacuation in Belgorod region?

One week after the Ukrainian armed forces invaded Belgorod region, military actions are intensifying there, with both sides mobilizing additional forces. The Russian Ministry of Defense previously stated that all Ukrainian attacks had been repelled, but Russian military bloggers and local officials assessed the situation as complex. According to the head of Belgorod region, almost the entire population of the Krasnoyarsky district, where battles are ongoing, has been evacuated.

About what is happening in this new section of the Russia-Ukraine front – in a BBC commentary.

The command of the Ukrainian armed forces usually provides very little explanation of how offensive operations are progressing, and in the case of the situation related to Belgorod region, they are not providing any explanation at all.

The Russian Ministry of Defense is also providing little coverage of the situation in Belgorod region. On March 18, after reports of the first attempts by Ukrainian armed forces to break through Russian defenses, military leadership stated that all attacks had been repelled and that there had been no breach of the state border.

"In the Belgorod direction, units of the 'Sever' group of forces struck at the locations where two mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian armed forces, an assault battalion, and a territorial defense forces brigade had concentrated in the areas of the settlements of Ugroyedi, Miropole, and Krasnopole in Sumy region," the ministry's report on March 25 stated.

Compared to previous information, this report omitted the name of one settlement in Ukraine, and the information regarding Ukrainian losses was different.

Evacuation

At the same time, Russian military bloggers are reporting on the complex situation in Belgorod region, with local media already writing about two districts – Krasnoyarsky and Rakityansky – being heavily shelled, and images of destroyed infrastructure facilities have appeared online.

Regional leader Vyacheslav Gladkov stated on March 23 that most of the population living in the Krasnoyarsky district of Belgorod region – "almost everyone" – has been evacuated. According to him, the evacuation also covered part of the population of Rakityansky district. Gladkov did not specify the total number of those taken to safe places.

According to official data, 13,800 people lived in Krasnoyarsky district at the beginning of 2024.

Fighting for Demidovka

Various military sources have reported heavy fighting in the western part of Belgorod region without specific details. According to their information, Ukrainian armed forces have managed to capture part of the villages of Demidovka and Popovka in the border area – these locations are located three and one kilometers from the border, respectively.

"In the Belgorod direction, clashes continue in the Demidovka area. Ukrainian units attempted to break through to the support points of the Russian armed forces behind the border in the village of Popovka, which indicates that pressure is being maintained in the area. The situation has been complicated by weather conditions – in recent days, the activity of unmanned aerial vehicles from both sides has decreased.

"Currently, Ukrainian armed forces are transferring reserves towards Krasnoyarsky district, indicating an attempt to expand the attack zones," writes the Military Analytics Telegram channel.

"In Belgorod region. Fighting is ongoing in Demidovka. The enemy continues to attempt to expand the control zone," confirms Z-blogger WarGonzo.

"For the Primorye border guard unit, it is a difficult deployment; unfortunately, there are losses among the guys during the repulsion of the armed invasion in Krasnoyarsky district of Belgorod region," wrote the Telegram channel "Starshiy pogrannaryada" a day ago.

"At this time, all of them have been evacuated, including those in serious condition. The access roads to the support area were blocked, so the soldiers of the 128th brigade who came to help had to clear the roads with their hands.

Enemy tanks were operating along the position, and 'Baba Yaga' was constantly flying in and dropping shells, complicating the evacuation. The position was not lost; on the contrary, it was reinforced by the arriving units of the Russian Ministry of Defense," the report stated.

According to Russian military bloggers, Ukrainian forces are operating in relatively small groups, trying to enter and fortify themselves in the forests.

Attempt to seize the initiative?

According to geolocation data available to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrainian forces are attacking in Belgorod region in the area from Popovka to Prilesyag. The distance between these Russian villages is approximately 12 kilometers in a straight line, but taking into account the curves of the border line, the length of the conflict line is much greater.

ISW's map indicates that the advance of Ukrainian forces in this area, although at a very shallow depth, has been recorded. Most likely, in most places, it is not about Ukrainian armed forces capturing Russian territory, but rather about forming a gray zone along the border that is not under the control of either side.

The map of Ukraine's DeepState analytical portal shows that the advance of Ukrainian armed forces has only been recorded in the areas of Popovka and Demidovka.

"The enemy is trying to break through the border near Sumy (near Basovka and Vladimirovka) to create a sanitary zone. Accordingly, the Defense Forces are also conducting symmetrical actions to prevent the initiative from shifting to the enemy," DeepState writes.

Secondary direction

Unlike the Kursk region, which was invaded by Ukrainian forces last August, the current strike direction of the Ukrainian armed forces does not seem promising. In Kursk region, several large settlements, including the city of Kurchatov, which has a nuclear power plant, as well as the regional center itself, remained under potential threat, forcing the Russian command to urgently transfer large reserves.

There are no large settlements in the western part of Belgorod region. However, the events in Kursk demonstrated to the Russian government what problems could arise if the enemy were to capture and hold even one district center.


At the same time, this is not a significant risk for the Ukrainian armed forces – even if the operation fails, the likelihood of Russia quickly launching a counteroffensive in this direction is low. This is because there are very few open fields and roads on the Ukrainian side of the border.

The plan of the Ukrainian command may be to force the Russian army to fight in a secondary direction.

"By the way, the enemy command has already involved part of the forces of the 6th, 20th, and 3rd combined arms armies from the 'Sever', 'Zapad', and 'Yug' groups in Belgorod region," says Ukrainian military analyst Konstantin Mashoves.

He noted that the Russian 6th army is operating in the Kupyansk direction, the 20th army in the Liman direction, and the 3rd army in the Seversk and Kramatorsk directions.