What results are needed for Uzbekistan to qualify for the World Cup?

The Uzbekistan national team, despite currently recording its best results in the qualifying matches, will now face decisive games.

In an interview after the match against Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan national team captain Eldor Shomurodov mentioned that if Iran is defeated in the next round, the issue of qualifying for the World Cup would be 99 percent resolved. But what if the events unfold differently?

Uzbekistan will play three more matches in the World Cup qualifiers:

March 25: Home against Iran;
June 5: Home against the UAE;
June 10: Home against Qatar.

Although the team is currently firmly in second place in the group standings, the results of the upcoming matches could change everything.

Record Performance

On March 20, Uzbekistan hosted representatives from Kyrgyzstan in the third (final) round of the World Cup 2026 qualifiers in Tashkent. In a match against one of the group outsiders, defender Hojiakbar Alijonov scored the only goal, securing a minimal 1-0 victory. After this hard-fought three points, the Uzbekistan national team solidified its second place in the group.

After seven rounds, the total points reached 16, with the nearest pursuers trailing by 6 points, which is a record performance for the team in terms of points accumulated in the final stages of World Cup qualifying tournaments.

Previously, the best results were recorded in the qualifying stages for the 2014 and 2018 World Cups: the team led by Mirjalol Qosimov collected 14 points in 8 matches, but this was not enough for a direct ticket to the tournament in Brazil. Four years later, in the qualifiers for the World Cup hosted by Russia, the team under Samvel Babayan finished with 13 points.

Previous Matches in the Group

At first glance, the Uzbekistan national team seems to be participating better in this qualifying round, and the chances appear to be better as well. However, due to the change in the World Cup format and the increase in the number of participating teams, the number of groups and participants in the final stage of the qualifiers has also increased, resulting in matches against relatively weaker opponents.

In Group A of the Asian region, Kyrgyzstan and North Korea were such opponents, and Uzbekistan gained most of its points—12 out of 16—against these teams. It should be noted that none of these matches against relatively weaker opponents were easy; in both matches against North Korea, the opponents failed to convert penalties, and a minimal advantage (1-0) was maintained. In the first away match against Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan had to come from behind and only achieved a determined victory in the second half (3-2). In the second match in Tashkent, the opponent's early red card made the task easier (1-0).

So far, only one match has been played against the remaining representatives of the group, and the results of these matches have not been very satisfactory.

Initially, in the match against group favorite Iran in Tashkent, the opponent played most of the second half with one player less, but this advantage was not utilized (0-0).

Uzbekistan secured important three points in the match against the UAE, which is its main rival for the second qualification spot (1-0), but the decisive moment in that match was the red card received by the Emirati player, followed by a winning goal from a penalty.

Another competitor for qualification, Qatar, was unfortunately defeated away (2-3). After trailing by two goals at halftime, Uzbekistan managed a comeback in the second half thanks to goals from Abbos Fayzullayev, but the players lost focus in the additional minutes and conceded a goal.

Now that goal could prove costly.

Upcoming Matches in the Group

On March 25, Tuesday, the 8th round matches of the World Cup 2026 qualifiers will take place in Asia. Iran will host Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan will face Qatar, and North Korea will play against the UAE.

Despite Uzbekistan currently being in a favorable position in the group, all of the last three matches will be against strong opponents: after Iran, matches against the UAE and Qatar await.

Currently, the UAE, sitting in third place with 10 points, has already played two matches against group favorite Iran and will now play against North Korea, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, while Qatar, another team with 10 points, will face Kyrgyzstan, Iran, and Uzbekistan in the last rounds.

That is, the easiest schedule is for the UAE, while the toughest is for Uzbekistan.

If Uzbekistan manages to win against Iran, as Shomurodov mentioned, the task will be "99 percent accomplished," and the team will effectively return to the fight for first place in the group, with just one point in the next two matches being enough for a direct qualification. However, if any result other than a victory is recorded in Tehran, the situation will become complicated.

Below, other scenarios for the upcoming matches are considered:

Defeats to Iran and the UAE:

On Tuesday, Iran will take to the field against Uzbekistan in their home match to secure qualification, which will make the task even more difficult for the Uzbek players. If no points are gained that day and the Arab teams win in parallel matches, the situation in the group will become complicated for Uzbekistan—rivals will close the gap to 3 points.

In such a case, the pressure on the Uzbekistan team traveling to the UAE will increase. If they lose in the next two matches, the Uzbeks may effectively lose hope for direct qualification. Because in this scenario, on the eve of the last round, Uzbekistan, the UAE, and Qatar (if Iran resolves the qualification issue in the 8th round, it is highly likely that they will field a mixed squad in the following matches) will all have the same—16 points. In a tie situation, goal difference will come into play, and in this regard, the situation is much better for the UAE (currently +6 and will improve further with victories in the next rounds, while Uzbekistan is at +4 and will worsen with losses in the next rounds).

As a result, Uzbekistan will have to hope to defeat Qatar by a large margin in the last round and that Kyrgyzstan does not lose heavily to the UAE or provides as much "help" as possible.

Draws with Iran and the UAE:

If Uzbekistan draws with Iran, their points will reach 17, but this will not significantly affect the current situation in the group, as the Arab teams may win their matches and close the gap (to 13 points). And if Uzbekistan loses to the UAE in the 9th round, the gap with that team will shrink to one point, making it essential to win against Qatar in the last round. In that case, even if the UAE achieves maximum results in the last three rounds, totaling 19 points, Uzbekistan can still finish above them with 20 points;

If Uzbekistan loses to Iran and draws with the UAE, the situation will be much easier: it will be enough not to lose to Qatar in the last round. In that case, Uzbekistan will remain above the UAE with 18 points (in the case of a draw with Qatar) or 20 points (if Qatar is defeated) (the Arabs will collect a maximum of 17 points even if they achieve a 100 percent result against two other opponents besides Uzbekistan);

If draws are recorded in the first two matches, Uzbekistan will have 18 points, and even if the UAE wins against Kyrgyzstan and North Korea, they will still be behind Uzbekistan with 17 points, making a draw in the last round against Qatar sufficient (even if Qatar wins their first two matches, they will still remain at 17 points due to the draw in the last round).
Additionally, Uzbekistan may hope for the UAE and Qatar to drop points against the outsiders. Every point lost by the Arab teams brings Uzbekistan closer to the World Cup.

The We Global Football portal currently rates Uzbekistan's chances of participating in the World Cup highly. Following the victory over Kyrgyzstan, the chances of Temur Kapadze's team have increased by 6 percent to 92.6 percent. The Uzbekistan national team is currently ranked 4th among the contenders for one of the six direct spots allocated for Asia, behind Japan (who has already secured a spot), Iran, and South Korea. Australia and Iraq are the main contenders for the remaining two spots.

Team Situation

After Srechko Katanec, who achieved results with a pragmatic style in the first round, left the head coach position due to health issues in January, former Uzbekistan national team player Temur Kapadze was appointed in his place.

However, he is unable to utilize the services of defenders Husniddin Aliqulov and Sherzod Nasrulloyev, and forward Doston O‘runov due to injuries. Additionally, one of the team leaders, Jaloliddin Masharipov, will miss the match against Iran due to receiving another yellow card for simulation in the game against Kyrgyzstan.

At the same time, several representatives of the squad have shown good form ahead of important matches. In particular, team captain and Roma forward Eldor Shomurodov, Manchester City defender Abduqodir Husanov, CSKA midfielder Abbos Fayzullayev, Pakhtakor defender Hojiakbar Alijonov, and Rubin defender Rustam Ashurmatov stood out with their activity in the last match. Although only one goal was scored against Kyrgyzstan, 24 shots were taken during the match, and only thanks to the goalkeeper's skill did the visitors avoid a heavy defeat.

The coach noted in the post-match press conference that there was little time for preparation, and the players mainly conducted theoretical training.

In practice, he has already made changes to the playing style in his debut. Now the team focuses more on attacking, and the wing defenders frequently push forward. Right-back Alijonov not only scored the winning goal but also earned a penalty.

Having missed the chance to qualify for the World Cup during his playing career, the coach, who was the first specialist to take Uzbekistan's Olympians to the Olympics, will have the opportunity to capitalize on this chance in the next few months during three important matches.