The experts of the Geneva Center for Security Policy presented a 31-page document outlining a plan to cease fire in Ukraine. This was reported by The New York Times. The document was distributed through a confidential channel in February and was funded by the Swiss Geneva Center. It is considered one of the most detailed templates for a ceasefire, as it aims to transition from theoretical options to concrete practical solutions.
The plan provides details to ensure the monitoring and cessation of fire along a front line of over 1200 kilometers and proposes the creation of a 10-kilometer-wide buffer zone to separate the two armies. This zone may require patrolling with 5000 civilians and police officers, as well as the involvement of nearly 10,000 foreign military personnel. The document envisions that observers will operate under the mandate of the United Nations (UN) in its implementation.
Additionally, the document also envisions the operation of a joint commission consisting of international observers and military personnel from Russia and Ukraine. Through the commission, the parties can hold each other accountable, assist in the release of prisoners, clear areas of mines, and create civilian corridors.
However, it is emphasized that the implementation of this path is a complex issue. The length of the territory controlled by Russia is approximately five times longer than the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea. It is also said that the complexity of the military forces and their weapons on both sides contributes to this. A peace-oriented plan may face significant challenges in being implemented under such complex conditions.
Experts point out that the biggest challenge in implementing this plan is the position of Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin. They express doubt that the Russian president will agree to cease fire and comply with its terms. Reports indicate that Russian officials have stated there is no intention to invade Ukraine even before the war, and that no monitoring mission could stop the Russian president if he decides to initiate a new invasion of Ukraine.
Representatives from Ukraine, Russia, the USA, and the European Union participated in the preparation of the document. However, it is difficult to view such plans with confidence, as the national interests, security policies, and military strategies among states may pose significant obstacles to the implementation of this plan.
At the same time, Tomas Greminger, director of the Geneva Center for Security Policy, emphasizes that if this document is implemented, it will significantly change the nature of subsequent attacks and military operations.
