Expert: "Conditions for an earthquake have been met in the seismic regions of Uzbekistan"

Today, on March 12, at 6:16 AM, an earthquake with a magnitude of 3.6 occurred in the Tashkent region. The epicenter of the earthquake was in the Tashkent district of the Tashkent region. Can the earthquake be repeated, and what is the current seismic situation in Uzbekistan? Ulfat Nurmatov, head of the seismogeodynamics laboratory at the Seismology Institute, answered these questions.

According to Nurmatov, the earthquake that occurred in the Tashkent region on March 12 was reflected in long-term forecasts.

“Such activations last occurred in 2008. Since then, it has happened again in 2025. Such earthquakes are typical for our area. It is preferable for such earthquakes to occur frequently. Because the energy accumulated underground is consumed regularly. It does not accumulate,” he explained.

The scientist added that the epicenter of the earthquake on March 12 was located in the Tashkent-Piskom seismic zone, and this area periodically becomes active, noting that there have been 7-8 significant earthquakes in the history of Tashkent city and its surroundings, and that this zone has the potential to generate earthquakes of up to 6.5 magnitude.

“Conditions for an earthquake are also developing in the Tashkent epicenter, and we have stated that there may be an activation in the near future. This corresponds to the average statistics. It could be stronger. Because the potential of this zone is high. Usually, an earthquake does not end with just one; there may also be aftershocks,” he said.

He also noted that it has been a long time since strong earthquakes occurred in Uzbekistan's seismic zones, and considering the average recurrence period, conditions have been met for the next activation.

“It is difficult to specify an exact day or week, but we conclude that there may be an activation in the near future within 1-2 years. These are relatively justified,” said the head of the institute's laboratory.

According to the scientist, the epicenters where earthquakes occurred in ancient times are currently in seismic calm. For example, the Andijan earthquake occurred in 1902, and in 1937 in Piskent, and since then, no strong earthquakes have been observed in these areas. “In the future, strong earthquakes may occur in areas close to them,” Nurmatov said.

According to the specialist, in previous years or earlier, in Central Asia, an average of 5-10 earthquakes with a magnitude of over 4 occurred every week, but now their number has decreased to 3-4.

“Now the number of earthquakes in Uzbekistan has also decreased. Recently, a 4.6 magnitude earthquake occurred in Kyrgyzstan as well. The entire Central Asia region may gradually enter a state of activation. It is difficult to specify the date, indeed we also deal with operational forecasts, and we have developed maps regarding where earthquakes may occur in the near future,” said the institute specialist.