Escalation in US-Iran relations. What options are there in Tehran?

If Trump refuses the nuclear deal with the US, he has threatened to bomb Iran. Tehran has already promised a "firm response." But what exactly will that response be? And what does Israel have to do with it?

US President Donald Trump is threatening to carry out a large-scale bombing of Iran if Tehran refuses to enter into a new nuclear agreement. At the same time, the US president emphasizes that he prefers to reach an agreement with Tehran – during Trump's previous presidency, the US itself had abandoned the nuclear deal with Iran. Washington is increasing pressure on the government in Tehran and has already increased the number of its air transporters in the Middle East region. According to Trump, the parties will hold a "very big meeting" this week to discuss the possibility of reaching a compromise. Until now, Iran has been refusing direct negotiations, and the country's spiritual leader Ali Khamenei warned that if the US attacks, it will face a "harsh response." But what exactly could that response be? "Meduza" tells about the options available in the Islamic Republic of Iran and why citizens of the US and Israel around the world may be at risk.

Washington has two scenarios for attacking Iran. The country could be bombed (primarily, the two nuclear facilities in Natanz and Fordow) by the US military in cooperation with the Israeli Air Force, or the operation could be fully undertaken by Israel itself. It is not difficult to predict the outcome of such strikes: Iran's air defense is unlikely to be able to resist – and both nuclear facilities' surface infrastructure will be destroyed. If American B-2 bombers and bunker-busting GBU-57 bombs are involved in the operation, significant damage will also be inflicted on their underground components.

Iran's defense strategy against potential attacks focuses primarily on delivering a retaliatory strike against the US and Israel. Indeed, over the past year, the capabilities of Iranian officials have significantly diminished. One of their allies – the "Hezbollah" organization in Lebanon – has suffered serious losses due to the Israeli invasion. Another ally – Bashar Assad's regime in Syria – has virtually disappeared.

Therefore, when Tehran thinks about a potential retaliatory strike, it is forced to rely primarily on its own forces rather than regional partners. Nevertheless, the Islamic Republic has sufficient capabilities that Iran can use in various combinations.

First option: Retaliatory strike across Israel

A logical response from Tehran to a potential joint operation by US and Israeli forces could be strikes on Israeli territory. Moreover, Iran had already attacked this country twice in 2024 with its missiles and drones (although they caused only limited damage). Specifically, during the second attack operation, Iran used about 200 ballistic missiles, some of which penetrated Israel's air defense system and damaged facilities at the "Nevatim" military base.

Of course, in previous strikes on Israeli territory, Tehran did not showcase all its military potential. However, Israel remains one of the most protected areas from the perspective of air defense, making it a complex target for Iran's response. Therefore, a retaliatory strike on Israel should not be considered the main scenario of events.

Second option: Strike on American military bases in the Middle East

US military bases are located in various parts of the region: Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. By the end of 2024, the total number of American troops in the Middle East is estimated to be around 40,000.

Such bases have already been attacked several times by pro-Iranian forces. In January 2024, an Iranian drone launched by a Shiite group in Iraq breached the air defense of a military base in Jordan. At that time, three American soldiers were killed.

In January 2020, after Iranian General Qasem Soleimani was killed on Trump's orders, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' aerospace forces struck two American facilities in Iraq. More than 100 soldiers were injured at that time.

American military bases in the Middle East appear to be one of the most likely targets for Iran's retaliatory strikes. They are scattered throughout the region, complicating their defense. Past experience has shown that breaching the air defense of US military facilities is much easier than penetrating Israel's dense and multi-layered defense system. In such a strike scenario, the main threat is the inevitable response of US air forces.

Third option: Strike on other US allies

According to the asymmetric warfare concept that Iran adheres to, American allies could become a means of exerting pressure on Washington. Therefore, Tehran could retaliate against Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, or Iraq.

Iran has already warned regional states that any support for a potential US operation will be seen as an act of hostility. The use of the airspace or territory of these states by US forces also falls under this category.

Tehran recently restored relations with Riyadh, and in this context, Saudi Arabia remained neutral during the exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran in 2024. Given the already complex situation, it is unlikely that Iran would want to deliberately worsen relations with Arab states in the Persian Gulf. Therefore, only American military bases in these countries may come under attack. Strikes on other targets would only occur in exceptional cases and would significantly escalate the conflict.

Fourth option: Blockading the Hormuz Strait

In recent decades, Iran has regularly threatened to close the Hormuz Strait in response to American aggression. This corridor is of crucial importance to the global hydrocarbon market. Approximately 1/6 of the world's oil and 1/3 of liquefied gas pass through here. Such a step could seriously disrupt the global economic situation. There is no need to look far for examples: the modest Houthis in Yemen have successfully obstructed the passage of commercial vessels through the Red Sea.

However, the problem with this option lies elsewhere. Today, the Hormuz Strait is primarily needed by China, not the US: nearly half of the oil imported by China passes through this route. Such a step would only indirectly harm US interests, but at the same time would damage Tehran's main trading partner – Beijing.

Closing the Hormuz Strait would be a step that could have long-term consequences for the global economy, and blocking this corridor is very easy for Iran. Nevertheless, due to China's interests, the likelihood of such an option remains low.

Fifth option: Detaining American citizens in Iran

Using Iranian citizens with dual citizenship as hostages is a common tactic for the Islamic Republic. After the revolution in 1979, a large diaspora of Iranians formed in the US, many of whom have not lost contact with their homeland. Therefore, many people with both American and Iranian citizenship live in the country.

The Iranian government often uses them for political purposes. American citizens are detained and then exchanged for prisoners in Tehran who are important to the regime. Or to exert pressure on Washington. In 2023, the Iranian government released five American citizens in exchange for accessing six billion dollars frozen in South Korean banks.

This option seems to be the least painful for Iran: the government acts within its jurisdiction against people who cannot resist. By the way, one should not expect any significant outcome from such an event. The detention of a few citizens is unlikely to be a major blow to the Trump administration.

Sixth option: Assassinations of US and Israeli citizens around the world

In the past, Tehran has repeatedly responded to the actions of Israel and the US with attacks on diplomatic facilities of these countries or their citizens in various parts of the world. The most famous examples are the bombings of American and French peacekeeping forces' barracks in Beirut in 1983 and the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires in 1992.

However, recently, Iran has rarely succeeded in carrying out such operations. Israeli and US security forces have learned to prevent such threats. For instance, in 2022, Iranian special services attempted to assassinate Israeli citizens in Turkey but failed.

Iran could indeed resort to terrorist methods, and given the numerous potential targets, such a scenario could become one of the most painful scenarios for Tehran's rivals.

Seventh option: Developing nuclear weapons

Discussions about the necessity of returning to the development of nuclear weapons in Iran had already intensified in 2024. They flared up anew after the threats from the American president. On April 6, Iranian parliament (Majlis) deputy Mohammad Qasim Usmani stated that the country has no other way to defend itself but to create nuclear weapons.

Tehran may accept the potential strikes from Israel and the US as a point of no return and stop limiting itself in the matter of developing nuclear weapons. However, potential attacks on key nuclear facilities would throw the country technologically back several years. Restoring atomic infrastructure would take several years. Nevertheless, in the long term, Iran's development of nuclear weapons could become one of the most concerning threats to security and stability in the Middle East.