An asteroid could hit the Moon in 2032 – Is Earth safe?

Interesting information has been released about the asteroid 2024YR4, discovered by astronomers in December 2024. According to initial forecasts, this celestial body may collide with the Moon on December 22, 2032.

NASA specialists estimate the probability of the asteroid hitting the Moon at 1.7 percent. However, the likelihood of the asteroid posing a threat to Earth is almost nonexistent.

Is there a threat to Earth? NASA's new calculations

In January 2024, it was reported that the probability of the 2024YR4 asteroid colliding with Earth was above 1 percent. On February 19, this figure was reported to have risen to 3.1 percent.

However, as a result of NASA's latest calculations, this figure has changed dramatically. It is now known that the probability of the asteroid hitting Earth is 0.004 percent. In other words, this probability is nearly zero.

NASA continues to monitor the asteroid

Astronomers are developing a plan to study the asteroid's precise parameters using the "James Webb" telescope. According to current data, the asteroid's diameter is around 40-90 meters, making it 3-4 times larger than the Chelyabinsk meteorite that fell in the Urals in 2013.

The 2024YR4 asteroid was discovered by the ATLAS observatory in Chile on December 27, 2024. At the end of January, astronomer Stas Korotkiy estimated the probability of this asteroid colliding with Earth to be between 0.5 percent and 6 percent. However, NASA's latest calculations have contradicted these estimates.

There is a possibility of collision with the Moon, but no threat to Earth

- The 2024YR4 asteroid may collide with the Moon in 2032, but the probability is also very low – 1.7 percent.
- The likelihood of the asteroid posing a threat to Earth is nearly nonexistent – 0.004 percent.
- NASA continues to study the asteroid's trajectory and structure.

Thus, for now, the Earth's population does not need to worry, but scientists continue to monitor this celestial body.