2 points are enough, 3 points are lacking — Uzbekistan's chances of qualifying for the World Cup

The qualifying stage for the 2026 World Cup in Asia has entered its intense phase. The We Global Football publication assessed the chances of national teams to qualify for the tournament in the Americas and rated Uzbekistan's chances of reaching the World Cup at 92.6 percent. From an external perspective, everything seems simple. If Uzbekistan wins its next three matches, it will qualify for the World Cup for the first time in history. But what is the actual situation, is everything as easy as we think? Let's take a look at the chances of Temur Kapadze's team.

First, let's take a look at the standings in the tournament table. After the 7th round, Iran is leading Group A. Currently, the Persians have secured a 99 percent chance of qualifying for the World Cup with 19 points. A draw in the upcoming match against Uzbekistan in the 8th round will also take Iran to the World Cup in the Americas. Uzbekistan is in second place with 16 points. The team has recorded 5 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 7 rounds. The UAE and Qatar, with 10 points each, occupy the 3rd and 4th places respectively. Kyrgyzstan (3 points) and North Korea (2 points) are at the bottom of the table as outsiders.

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What does Uzbekistan's upcoming schedule look like?

Uzbekistan's national team has three important matches ahead.

• March 25 Iran — Uzbekistan
  
• June 5 UAE — Uzbekistan
  
• June 10 Uzbekistan — Qatar
  

It is clear that all three matches awaiting Temur Kapadze's team are of great importance. This is because the other two teams, apart from Iran, are directly competing with Uzbekistan for World Cup qualification. If our team misses the opportunity in Iran on March 25 and the UAE and Qatar win their matches, their motivation could double. This is because the upcoming schedule for the opponents, especially the UAE team, is relatively easier. Let's take a look.

UAE national team schedule:

• March 25 North Korea — UAE
  
• June 5 UAE — Uzbekistan
  
• June 10 Kyrgyzstan — UAE
  

Qatar national team schedule:

• March 25 Kyrgyzstan — Qatar
  
• June 5 Qatar — Iran
  
• June 10 Uzbekistan — Qatar
  

It is evident that among the teams competing for second place, the easiest schedule belongs to the UAE. They will play against the group outsiders twice and host Uzbekistan once. In Qatar, however, the situation looks complicated. They will first travel to Kyrgyzstan and then play against the group leaders in the remaining two matches.

What are the chances?

Of course, Uzbekistan's chances are in its own hands. Much will become clear in the match against Iran on March 25. For example, if Uzbekistan loses away and the UAE beats North Korea while Qatar defeats Kyrgyzstan, the gap between our representatives and the rivals will be 3 points. The subsequent matches will become a matter of life and death for Temur Kapadze.

This is because the team will travel to the UAE in the 9th round. If they record a win or a draw, it will be good. However, if they miss the opportunity, the chances of the UAE taking second place will be high. This is because both teams will have 16 points, but the UAE team will have a better goal difference — +6. Uzbekistan's goal difference is +4. In that case, a significant win against Qatar in the last round will be required, as our opponent will travel to Kyrgyzstan and it is no secret that they are prepared to do everything to secure a victory in that match.

^{Photo: UFA}
Qatar also has chances. They will travel to Kyrgyzstan on March 25. If they return with a victory from Bishkek, they will host Iran in Doha on June 5. If Iran secures its World Cup qualification by that match, it is highly likely that the Qataris will strive for victory and come to Tashkent in the last round. If Qatar arrives at that match without any losses, it could be a bit challenging for Temur Kapadze's team.

A good scenario for Uzbekistan

As journalist Khushnudbek Khudoyberdiyev mentioned, there are also good scenarios. For instance, Uzbekistan does not necessarily have to win all three remaining matches. The team can afford to lose in Iran. The most important thing is to draw against the UAE and Qatar. In that case, the "White Wolves" will qualify for the World Cup 100%. Because the team's points will total 18, and even if the UAE and Qatar win their remaining two matches, they will not be able to catch up with Uzbekistan. As you can see, everything is in their hands. Simply securing at least 1 point against one of the two main rivals is enough. That is, at least drawing against the UAE and Qatar, meaning not losing. That's it, done.

Other scenarios

There are also other scenarios, but they do not depend on Uzbekistan. That is, the UAE and Qatar could drop points in other matches. For example, the neighboring Kyrgyzstan could prepare a surprise and take points from both the UAE and Qatar at home.

In an extremely optimistic scenario, Uzbekistan could officially qualify for the World Cup in three days. There are two options:

1. They need to draw against Iran, while the UAE and Qatar must lose their parallel matches;
2. They need to defeat Iran, while the UAE and Qatar either draw or lose in their parallel matches.

In both situations, Uzbekistan will officially qualify for the World Cup. The remaining two matches will simply be for formality. Of course, it is hard to believe in this, but such possibilities are not impossible in the theory of probabilities.