US President Donald Trump announced the introduction of new tariff rates for countries around the world. According to these measures, a 10 percent tariff is planned for Uzbekistan. Economist Mirkomil Kholboev analyzed how the new tariffs will affect our country's economy.
Trade relations between Uzbekistan and the USA
In 2024, Uzbekistan's foreign trade turnover with the USA amounted to 882 million dollars, which is 15.2 percent more than in 2023. Additionally, the export volume to the USA reached 314.7 million dollars, while imports amounted to 564.3 million dollars. However, based on these figures, it can be seen that America is not Uzbekistan's main trading partner. The export volume to the USA constitutes only 1.2 percent of our country's total exports.
The impact of new tariffs on Uzbekistan's exports
According to Kholboev's analysis, 86 percent of the products exported to the USA consist of service exports. This does not fall under the new tariffs. That is, only the remaining 14 percent of goods exports will be affected by the new tariffs.
Our country exports the following goods to the USA:
- Unspecified goods (9999) – 7.9 million dollars.
- Precious metals (7112) – 6.6 million dollars.
- Aluminum – 6.6 million dollars.
Even with the introduction of an additional 10 percent tariff on these goods, it will not significantly impact the total export volume.
Overall economic consequences of the tariffs
Although the direct impact may not be significant, the new tariff policy of the USA could slow down economic growth worldwide. This could also negatively affect the economies of Uzbekistan's main trading partners such as China, Turkey, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. If trade growth slows down, our exports to these countries may also decrease.
However, there are some positive aspects as well:
- The price of gold is expected to rise – This is one of Uzbekistan's main export goods and could positively impact the foreign trade balance.
- Imports may become cheaper – The tariffs from the USA may lower the prices of certain goods in the global market. This could make imported products coming to Uzbekistan cheaper.
At the same time, such a situation may create a new competitive environment for domestic producers and affect their market position.
The direct impact of the new tariffs on Uzbekistan is very minimal, as the trade turnover with the USA is not that large. Additionally, since service exports are exempt from tariffs, a significant blow to our exports is not expected.
However, the imposition of tariffs by the USA will affect the global economy and may indirectly impact our economy through Uzbekistan's main trading partners. Therefore, it is crucial to be prepared for changes in external markets and to strengthen economic diversification.
