Who are Uzbekistan's allies and who else could they be?

When observing inter-state relations, you may hear about "alliance relations." So, what does "alliance relations" mean? Is there a legal, juridical definition of "alliance"? Why do states seek to develop allied states and relations?

First of all, it should be noted that there is no legal definition of "alliance." Alliance relations are a complete political concept, possessing political content and essence. States establishing alliance relations give meaning to the term "alliance" based on their political traditions, needs, and views. Therefore, the established "alliance" between states may not necessarily imply the same meaning, content, tone, and cooperation.

Alliance relations represent the highest level and peak of relations between states. When states establish mutual alliance relations, it means that in any weather—whether in political and geopolitical turbulent situations—these states trust each other and must trust each other. There cannot be war between them, conflicts and disputes should not escalate, and if problematic situations arise on certain issues, it is expected that the parties will resolve these problems in a spirit of mutual respect and friendship. Furthermore, "alliance" conveys a political meaning that the states that sign it can rely on each other in difficult situations.

Uzbekistan achieved state independence in 1991, and over the past 34 years, it has entered into alliance relations with four states.

During Uzbekistan's first administration, our state signed an alliance agreement with only one country—the Russian Federation. This agreement was signed in November 2005. The alliance relationship established with the Russian Federation has a complex political and geopolitical context. After the events that took place in Andijan in May 2005, Western countries and the European Union called for an international investigation into these events. In this context, Uzbekistan seriously approached the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation, and by November 14, an agreement on alliance relations was signed in Moscow. The alliance with Russia was the only alliance relationship established during President Karimov's administration.

After the change of power in 2016, Uzbekistan began to interpret the concept of "alliance" in a completely different way. This concept was given a strategic rather than a tactical meaning, viewed through the lens of regional and Turkic identity.

During President Mirziyoyev's administration, alliance relations were established with three states, two of which are our close and directly neighboring countries, while the third is a neighboring country with which we have historically strong ties.

Alliance relations between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan were established on December 22, 2022. It is worth noting that in February of that same year, the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine, and a major war began. This war has undoubtedly affected inter-state relations in Central Asia. As Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan transitioned to mutual ally states, they agreed to support each other in the face of external threats and problems. In other words, the responsibility of these two countries for the fate of the region was emphasized, and they reached a historical agreement not to oppose each other covertly or openly for the interests or projects of external forces.

In 2024, Uzbekistan established alliance relations with two countries. In February, alliance agreements were signed with Tajikistan, and in August with Azerbaijan.

If we pay attention, during the first administration, Uzbekistan's relations with both Russia and Kazakhstan and Tajikistan were very tense and conflictual, at times extremely cold. However, the second administration was able to create an absolutely new tone in foreign policy, including relations with neighbors, not allowing coldness to prevail due to problems, but rather nurturing a spirit of friendship and trust for opportunities. At the same time, it achieved this result without compromising our national interests.

Tajikistan and Tajiks are considered the closest state and people to Uzbekistan and Uzbeks. If the closest nation to Uzbeks from the perspective of language and culture is Uyghurs, then from the perspective of mentality, it is likely to be Tajiks.

In the Caucasus region, there are three states, of which only one is Turkic, which is Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is considered a bridge state connecting Central Asia, that is, historical Turkestan, to Turkey.

So, which countries could Uzbekistan establish alliance relations with in the future? In my opinion, in the coming years, it is a matter of time for Uzbekistan to become allies with Turkey and also with neighboring Kyrgyzstan. For now, Turkmenistan is maintaining a neutral stance in foreign policy and is not very active in inter-state and multilateral organizations. However, if in the future Turkmenistan chooses geopolitical activity over neutrality, establishing an alliance with this country would be an important step for Uzbekistan's regional policy, Central Asian integration, and the cohesion of historical Turkestan.

New forms of inter-state relations are emerging in the world. International law has weakened significantly. New rules of the game are being formed regarding how powerful states impose their will. In this context, the alliance between Uzbekistan and Turkey would be of great importance for the security and stability of both states, as well as for the political, geopolitical, and military-strategic potential of Central Asia.