With the arrival of spring, the Russian army's offensive operations in Ukraine have slowed down, and the intensity of attacks and the pace of advance have significantly decreased. Ukrainian forces have become more active, launching consecutive counteroffensives and reclaiming a small portion of lost territories.
The BBC Russian service military analyst provided a brief commentary on what is happening on the Russia-Ukraine front.
During the past week, Russian troops continued to actively conduct attacks in various regions, especially in the west of Donetsk. In the Velikamikhaylovsk direction, they attempted to break through north of the Mokriye Yali River, while in the Kurakhovo direction, they tried to advance towards the city of Konstantinopol.
Russia's offensive operations also continued in other areas – to the east of Kharkiv in the Kupiansk and northeast in the Vovchansk regions, north of Donetsk in the Lyman and Seversk regions, southeast of Kramatorsk in the Chasiv Yar region, in the Pokrovsk region, and southeast of Zaporizhzhia in the Orekhiv region, as well as in the Kursk region.
In most directions, the advance of Russian troops is minimal compared to the autumn-winter campaign. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on March 5 that it found no confirmed successes of the Russian army along the entire front line.
At the same time, many sources, including Russians, confirmed reports of increased activity of Ukrainian armed forces in the west and north of Donetsk.
Overall, the intensity of the fighting remains high, but there are no significant results.
In ongoing counteroffensives, Ukrainian forces have managed to push back Russian units attacking Pokrovsk and restore their positions.
The geography of the counterattacks by Ukrainian armed forces is noteworthy – along the western (in the areas of Kotlino, Udachne, Novosergiyivka, Uspenovka) and eastern (in the areas of Vozdvijenka and Vodyanoye Vtoroye) flanks of the city, as well as in the south – in the areas of Dachanskoye and Shevchenko villages.
"Geolocation footage released on March 5 shows Russian troops striking Ukrainian armored vehicles east of Shevchenko (south of Pokrovsk), indicating that Ukrainian forces have recently advanced in this area," ISW writes.
Ukrainian forces delivered another counterstrike in Toretsk. The city, which seemed to have completely fallen under Russian army control, has once again become a battlefield – reports indicate that Ukrainian units broke into the city and there were clashes near the center of Toretsk.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on February 7 that Toretsk had been captured (in Russian military reports, this city is referred to by its old name, Dzerzhinsk). However, Ukrainian armed forces continued to control the outskirts of the city and re-entered the center of Toretsk at the end of February. According to the latest military report from "Meduza," they took advantage of the rotation of Russian units in Toretsk. Ukrainian military officials emphasize that, like Chasiv Yar, Toretsk has not fallen despite months of ongoing attempts by Russian forces. Ukrainian publications quoted a post from Russian military Svyatoslav Golikov's Telegram channel at the beginning of March, stating that the Russian Ministry of Defense had taken Toretsk "on credit," and the actual situation in the city was described as "terrible and vague."
"Everything is very complicated at the Pokrovsk doorstep, logistics are failing, there are no people," writes Russian military blogger "BCH 3," who deals with supply for Russian units on the front line. "We are advancing a bit near Chasiv Yar, but the situation is the same – logistics are breaking down, there are no people. The same goes for Toretsk – urban battles, Ukrainian armed forces are going on the counteroffensive. We continue to hang a noose around the necks of leaders at all levels."
"Why are there no people? Why does the enemy have air superiority, and this superiority has a stable growth trend? They have wings that can fly 24/7 in the sky, Baba-Yaga drones, and relays that allow kamikaze drones to fly 20 km. Overall, we have everything more modest. The advantage in FPV drones used to be 1 to 6, now it's even greater. This is not just because we have fewer drones, although that is also the case. We have fewer operators," the Russian blogger believes.
Ukrainian armed forces indeed have a lot of drones, and their numbers are increasing. Photo: EPA
"Limited counteroffensives at the tactical level"
The decrease in the pace of the Russian offensive and the increased activity of Ukrainian armed forces may have various reasons.
Most likely, after several months of continuous attacks, Russian units are exhausted and now need rest, reorganization, and regrouping.
Weather conditions also play a role – with the arrival of spring, roads worsen, and the weather becomes more favorable for the drones used by Ukrainians.
The appointment of General Mykhailo Drapatiy as the commander of the ground forces in Donbass at the end of January may also have played a role.
Since his arrival, Ukrainian forces have frequently moved away from passive defense tactics, starting to deliver counterstrikes and create counter-threats.
In the Pokrovsk direction, it is not a counteroffensive but rather "limited counteroffensives at the tactical level," explains Ukrainian military journalist Bohdan Miroshnikov.
