Numerous diplomatic efforts are being made to end the war between Ukraine and Russia, but achieving peace is still not easy. While the successes in negotiations between the US and Ukraine have provided a basis for hoping for an end to the war, the next steps are simply more complicated than just a ceasefire. The obstacles to a solid peace are numerous, and each of them poses greater challenges than any ceasefire.
Is peace beneficial for Ukraine?
On one hand, it is unclear how peace could benefit Ukraine. The constructive dialogue reestablished by Volodymyr Zelensky with the US and the restoration of military aid from Ukraine and the US have had a favorable impact. This has helped to undermine the Kremlin's narrative that "Ukraine does not want war" by allowing for a halt in military actions. However, it is clear that agreeing to a ceasefire without returning to the principles accepted at the beginning of the war is not currently necessary. Ukraine is not ready to accept Russian troops that have not been withdrawn from its territory, as any ceasefire would give Moscow the opportunity to regroup for new attacks.
In serious negotiations, the issue of security guarantees remains unresolved, indicating that each side is striving to strengthen its position. The US has emphasized that guarantees will only be discussed after a cessation of hostilities, and therefore Kyiv has reluctantly agreed to compromises that are often reasonable.
Is peace beneficial for Russia?
Russia, on the other hand, has remained silent, not believing in the cessation of hostilities. The Kremlin has stated that agreeing to a temporary ceasefire will not lead to rapprochement for them. Putin has also mentioned in his personal conversations that any ceasefire would only allow the opponent to regroup.
The main point for Russia is that if the war stops without Kyiv's approaches, Putin will have to try to achieve his goals through military actions again. This ensures that Russia does not trust Ukraine's allies, whom it considers "hard to believe in."
Russia may set clear conditions and demand that the US stop military aid to Ukraine. Thus, Putin may allow the war to end with agreements, but this will ultimately lead to Moscow not accepting humiliations or full recognition.
Diplomatic risks and future considerations
There are many issues emerging between America and Russia regarding achieving a temporary ceasefire. If each side wants to identify the objectives that must be achieved for the war to end, they will not accept a rushed process. During these discussions, threats, numerous conditions, and terms of agreements need to be reviewed. To clarify these, direct communication and relations between Russia and Ukraine, along with many new economic, political, and military conditions, should be discussed in conjunction with the US, Europe, and Ukrainian states.
