The new report prepared by the German Federal Intelligence Service and Bundeswehr emphasizes that by the 2030s, Russia may be ready for a large-scale military confrontation with NATO. According to the report, Russian President Vladimir Putin considers this war to be systematic and is preparing thoroughly for it.
Russia's military capability is increasing
According to German intelligence, currently, Russia does not have sufficient strength for direct confrontation against NATO. However, the Lithuanian special service estimates that Moscow may conduct a limited military operation against several NATO member states to test the alliance's response.
The report notes:
- Russia is managing to restore military losses during the war with Ukraine.
- Russia's military industry has started producing more weapons than the front needs.
- Once the war in Ukraine ends, Russian troops may soon be directed towards the borders of the Baltic states.
Defense spending has sharply increased
The Russian government has sharply increased defense spending during the war. In the last three years, 22 trillion rubles have been spent on the army and arms production. In the 2025 budget, 13.2 trillion rubles (30% of total expenditures) are allocated for military purposes.
Vladimir Putin decided in September 2024 to increase the number of the Russian army to 2.38 million people. With this, the Russian armed forces became the second largest in the world after China.
NATO is prepared for the Russian threat
On March 26, NATO Secretary General Mark Ryutte issued a strong warning against a potential Russian aggression.
"If someone mistakenly thinks that they can attack Poland or other allies and get away with it — they will face the full might of NATO forces. Our response will be devastating," Ryutte said during a meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw.
NATO members continue to enhance military preparedness against the Russian threat, particularly focusing on strengthening military capabilities in the Baltic and Eastern Europe.
The German intelligence report indicates that Russia is seriously preparing for a large-scale war against NATO and that after the war in Ukraine, Russia may turn its attention to the Baltic states. NATO is also reinforcing its military forces, stating its readiness to respond effectively to such threats.
If tensions between Russia and NATO escalate in the coming years, a new conflict may arise in Europe.
