The probability of an asteroid hitting the Moon is 4.3 percent

In 2032, there is a reported possibility of an asteroid named 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon. This was reported by Zamin.uz.

According to IFL Science, this space object was first detected in December 2024 using the ATLAS telescope in Chile. Initially, it was assumed that the asteroid might pose a threat to Earth, but subsequent observations disproved this risk.

Now scientists are studying the probability of the asteroid impacting the Moon. Research indicates that the chance of collision with the Moon is 4.3 percent.

This conclusion was reached by a research team led by Professor Paul Wiegert from Western Ontario University. If the collision occurs, it could create a crater on the Moon with a diameter of one kilometer.

The energy released by the event is expected to be equivalent to 6.5 megatons of TNT. Experts consider this incident to be the largest lunar impact in the last five thousand years.

This cosmic event may not only be a visual spectacle. Materials ejected from the Moon by the impact could cause a strong meteor shower visible from Earth.

Additionally, there is a risk of damage to the orbital movements of some artificial satellites. According to astrophysicist Andrew Rivkin from Johns Hopkins University, it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions on this matter.

The impact's effects will depend on the exact point where the asteroid strikes. Nevertheless, NASA is considering scenarios to alter the asteroid's trajectory using nuclear technologies to protect the Moon and artificial satellites if necessary.

To observe the asteroid more precisely, the James Webb Space Telescope is planned to be used starting in 2026. These observations will allow for a more accurate assessment of the asteroid's size and trajectory.

Professor Wiegert emphasizes that observations in early 2027 will be crucial. If the threat is confirmed, there may be limited time to take precautionary measures.