Today marks exactly 25 years since Putin was first elected as the President of Russia. According to many experts, the main goal of this politician, who emerged from the KGB, is to achieve a "second Yalta agreement." So, what did Stalin and Roosevelt agree upon in Crimea 80 years ago? Can we expect a "second Yalta" from Putin and Trump now? Political scientist Kamoliddin Rabbimov discusses this in his column on Kun.uz.
It has been a quarter of a century since Vladimir Putin came to power as the President of Russia. He was officially elected president exactly 25 years ago on March 26, 2000. During a period between 2008 and 2012, when Dmitry Medvedev was in charge of the RF, Putin still had a significant influence on the decisions being made as Prime Minister. Moreover, Medvedev could not dare to be independent from Putin or oppose him.
Most experts say that the historically most important period for Putin is 1945: when the USSR became one of the two largest powers in the world, the voice of official Moscow began to rise in global affairs, and the USSR's influence over Europe increased.
That is why the view that "Putin's main goal in wars and conflicts with the West is to achieve a second Yalta agreement" is widely held. So, what happened at the Yalta conference?
As the war was coming to an end and Hitler's defeat became evident, an 8-day conference took place from February 4 to 11, 1945, in the city of Yalta on the Crimean Peninsula, involving the leaders of the USSR, the USA, and Britain. Four main issues were discussed in Yalta: the fate of post-war Germany, Poland, Japan, and the establishment of the United Nations.
During these 8 days, the leaders of the three countries searched for compromises and debated these issues from morning till night. US President Roosevelt was in very poor health and struggled to attend this conference. At 63, Roosevelt, who was confined to a wheelchair, needed 2-3 people to lift him from his wheelchair to a chair. 70-year-old Churchill was also not in good health. A month after the Yalta conference, Roosevelt passed away. By July 1945, Churchill lost in the elections and left power.
Stalin, Roosevelt, and Churchill agreed on the post-war world order in Yalta. The USSR is seen as the state that gained the most from these agreements. Eastern Europe, Poland, and the eastern part of Germany, as well as Japan's Kuril Islands and Sakhalin, all came under direct or indirect Soviet control. The USSR's voice would also be among the decisive ones in the UN.
That is why Putin dreams of reaching agreements with the West like those made in Yalta. For Putin, the results of the Cold War are unjust and humiliating. Because the USSR disintegrated, and new independent states emerged.
Currently, multi-stage negotiations and meetings are taking place between the USA and the RF in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia. Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible. However, for Putin, the occupied territories in Ukraine are not enough. Putin's conditions for "stable peace" are many, including NATO's withdrawal, Ukraine never becoming a NATO member, and recognition of all occupied lands as belonging to Russia within administrative borders, etc.
So, against the backdrop of the mutual trust dialogue between Trump and Putin, is it possible for the "Yalta-2" that Putin expects to materialize? In my opinion, it is unlikely. The main reasons are as follows.
Firstly, the former USSR was an ideologically driven state. In the USSR, besides the communist ideology, there were also important state bodies like the Politburo. Although Stalin ruled for a certain period as a singular figure in Soviet history, after Stalin, leaders like Khrushchev and Brezhnev could not step outside the Soviet ideology and the model of collective leadership of the Politburo. Putin, however, governs as a singular figure. He does not consult with anyone, and his moods and projects are accepted as facts. The conclusion is that after Putin leaves power, his wars and projects will not remain as facts representing the interests of all of Russia; they are likely to be reviewed. This was not the case in the USSR. Due to ideology and collective governance, the decisions of Soviet leaders continued to be implemented and adhered to by subsequent leaders.
The second factor is the discontent of Europe. Almost all European countries are strongly dissatisfied with the current positive relations between Putin and Trump and Washington's changed positions regarding Ukraine. This discontent is certainly significant. Today's Europe is not the same as the Europe that was devastated in 1945. Today's European Union has a population of half a billion, and its economy is very rich and developed. The EU does not accept Trump's directives as facts. Agreements with Putin may be rejected by Europe.
The third factor is Ukraine itself. Trump's ability to influence or pressure Ukraine is not absolute. The greatest harm Trump could inflict on Ukraine would be to halt US aid and intelligence information. However, if Ukraine is determined to fight for its interests, Trump cannot stop this effort. The support from the European Union and other countries will be sufficient for Ukraine to continue the war. True, Ukraine cannot defeat Russia with EU assistance, but it can provide enough resistance to prevent the Russian invasion from expanding excessively.
The fourth factor is the changed world. In 1945, the world order was very simple and straightforward. At that time, there were no actors or participants other than the governments of nation-states. Today, we are in the information age. Transnational corporations and international organizations are very powerful. Even when Putin and Trump reach an agreement today, their agreement cannot definitively resolve everything.
Moreover, in 4 years, Trump will also leave power. The views of the next US leaders may be different.
Putin himself has also aged considerably. He is 73 years old. Sooner or later, the chairs he occupies in the Kremlin will become vacant.
Based on the above, Putin's Russia will not be able to achieve a "second Yalta." Even if it achieves something in a certain sense, it will not be real.
Kamoliddin Rabbimov,
political scientist
political scientist
