America's "peace plan": What promises to Ukraine, what gains for Russia?

According to information distributed by Axios, the US government has proposed an official “peace plan” to end the war in Ukraine. According to it, Crimea will be officially recognized as Russian territory, and the majority of the territories occupied by Russia since 2022 will be “de facto” ratified.

What is the US proposing in the London negotiations?

According to Washington's plan, Ukraine may receive the following:
1. Security guarantees — special peacekeeping forces with the participation of European countries and possibly other neutral countries. (However, the document does not currently disclose how the mechanism will work.)
2. A small area in the Kharkiv region occupied by Russia will be returned.
3. Unimpeded access to the Dnieper River will be granted.
4. Assistance for reconstruction and compensation — but the financial sources are unknown.
5. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is considered Ukrainian territory, but it is proposed to be placed under US control. Electricity will be supplied to both Ukraine and Russia.
6. US-Ukrainian cooperation in mineral resources will be established.

What does Russia achieve?

In Washington's scenario, Moscow is given the following opportunities:
1. Crimea will be recognized as Russian territory “de jure.”
2. The occupied territories in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions will be “de facto” ratified.
3. It will be promised that Ukraine will not join NATO, but it may join the European Union.
4. Sanctions imposed since 2014 will be lifted.
5. US-Russia economic relations will be expanded, especially in the energy and industrial sectors.

How does Kyiv respond to this proposal?

According to Axios, Ukrainian officials are assessing the proposal as very favorable to Russian interests. A source in Kyiv stated:

“It is clear what benefits there are for Russia, but what is being offered to Ukraine is uncertain.”

Following this information, it is expected that Ukraine will not discuss this plan in the London negotiations. One US official indicated that in the last 24 hours, Kyiv has signaled its focus on a 30-day ceasefire agreement.

It has been reported that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has decided not to go to London, and instead, a delegation will conduct negotiations with their counterparts in the UK and Ukraine.

Conclusion: a fair agreement or a political maneuver?

This “peace plan” offers clear gains for Russia and various uncertain and conditional promises for Ukraine. The recognition of Crimea, the abandonment of NATO, and the absolute uncertainty of security guarantees raise serious concerns for Ukraine.

What do you think — should Ukraine accept this plan? Or is this a geopolitical gain for the Kremlin and a burden for Kyiv?