Will Ukraine survive without American weapons?

^{Photo: Getty Images}
The extensive military aid provided to Ukraine by the US during the three years of the war may be halted. In any case, American President Donald Trump does not rule out this option and believes that the burden of defense assistance should fall on Europe. What does this mean for Ukraine?

The delivery of American weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces continues under contracts signed during President Joe Biden's term. According to the plan, such deliveries are supposed to continue until the end of 2025. However, this does not exclude "unexpected situations" that could suddenly cut them off with the approval of the new leader of the White House.

However, according to Ukrainian officials, nearly 40 percent of the weapons on the front lines are already produced in Ukraine. The rest are still being supplied by European and American partners.

Last year alone, Ukraine's military-industrial complex produced products worth $9 billion. At the same time, according to the calculations of the head of the Ministry of Strategic Industries, German Smetanin, the potential of the industrial complex is twice as high.

"Ukrainian enterprises were capable of producing twice as much, approximately $20 billion worth of defense products last year," he says.

Currently, Kyiv's main efforts are focused on replacing a significant portion of American weapons with domestic production and assistance from European Union countries — so that if Trump stops aid to Kyiv, it does not lead to failure on the front.

Domestic Production

A senior official dealing with Ukraine's defense issues explained to the BBC that, in fact, Kyiv is only heavily dependent on the US for a few types of weapons.

For example, this does not apply to the main fire support weapon and the "most widely used" on the front — reconnaissance, strike, and FPV drones. The vast majority of them are assembled by private and state companies in Ukraine.

^{Ukrainian enterprises produce various weapons ranging from shells to cruise missiles. Photo: Ukrinform}
In addition, over the past six months, Ukrainians have been working primarily on localizing the production of all key components supplied from China and the US.

This work is almost complete — 95 percent of the drones produced in Ukraine are assembled from Ukrainian components.

According to Vladislav Belbas, head of one of Ukraine's largest private defense companies, Ukrainian Armor, apart from FPV drones, the military-industrial complex fully meets its needs for armored vehicles, mortars, and artillery systems, as well as partially meets its needs for ammunition.

"We are actively developing our own ammunition production — even now, we are producing more Soviet-caliber ammunition than all our Western partners combined," Belbas noted.

The Ukrainian government is also actively working on creating joint ventures with European arms manufacturers. There are already about ten such enterprises engaged in the joint production of various weapon samples, ranging from armored vehicles to missiles.

Servicing the American F-16 fighter jets provided to Ukraine should not become a problem, Kyiv officials emphasize.

"There is one company in Europe specialized in this, so US assistance can be replaced," a Ukrainian official told the BBC.

The same goes for Starlink satellite communication. Although the company itself and its owner Elon Musk do not plan to deprive Ukrainian military of this technology, if that happens, there are already several alternative options available in Ukraine. One of them was tested in the Kursk region, where Starlink does not operate.

Serious Dependence

However, according to the Ukrainian official, the dependence on the US for air defense systems and the missiles for them remains critical.

This primarily concerns the Patriot air defense system, which can hit ballistic and aeroballistic targets.

"We are working on replacements. However, there are only a few countries in the world that produce their own air defense systems. Therefore, finding another one instead of the Americans will be quite difficult," the BBC interlocutor notes.

^{The combat part of the "Kinzhal" missile shot down over Kyiv on May 12, 2023. Such missiles can only be intercepted by Patriot missile systems. Photo: Getty Images}
Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine is developing a system similar to the American Patriot missile system. According to BBC sources, this development is not yet complete, but work on it is "actively ongoing."

In parallel, Ukrainian developers are trying to find other solutions to hit enemy air targets, which would allow saving the scarce Western air defense missiles.

In recent weeks, certain achievements have been made in this regard. It has been reported that the Shahed-type strike drones launched by Russia every night over Ukrainian cities have been successfully shot down for the second time by Ukrainian devices that are cheaper than drones. This information has been confirmed by two BBC sources.

Kyiv has another serious dependence on American arms suppliers. This concerns multiple launch rocket systems, primarily HIMARS and the ammunition for them.

Such systems proved to be very effective on the front in the summer of 2022. Although their effectiveness has somewhat decreased in recent years due to the resistance of Russian electronic warfare systems (which directly affected the accuracy of American GMLRS missiles), they remain a terrifying weapon in the hands of Ukrainian military.

Ammunition for HIMARS

Guided GMLRS missiles became the most important strike tool for the Ukrainian armed forces in the summer of 2022. At that time, the Ukrainian army developed tactics for their use and struck at Russian ammunition depots.

This tactic was so effective that it forced the Russians to change their supply system to front-line units.

These missiles, which reach targets up to 90 kilometers away, are equipped with two types of warheads — high-explosive fragmentation or cluster munitions, as well as two types of targeting systems — satellite and inertial systems.

The high accuracy and power of the missile warhead are complemented by the rapid deployment speed — wheeled HIMARS or tracked MLRS launchers can strike within a short time after receiving reconnaissance data.

These launchers are also used for ATACMS missiles, which have a range of up to 300 kilometers.

Although Russian forces have tested ways to counter GMLRS (they are fighting against them with electronic warfare systems, affecting satellite navigation, or intercepting them with surface-to-air missiles), it is impossible to fully protect against the strike — especially when it is delivered unexpectedly.

The problem is that, unlike other shells, GMLRS is produced only at Lockheed Martin factories in the US. Expanding production is a complex task, as the missile contains many high-tech components.

Moreover, the high effectiveness of these missiles demonstrated in Ukraine has increased global demand for them, and now Ukraine has many competitors.

There is no way to replace these missiles, neither in quantity nor in quality.

Surface-to-Air Missiles

Missiles for surface-to-air missile systems and the systems themselves are very important for Ukraine — the entire country's air defense relies on ground-based complexes. A large part of these systems consists of American surface-to-air missile complexes.

The importance of air defense missiles cannot be overstated — they have become the most consumed material, and their consumption has increased since Russia has started using fake target drones more actively.

Additionally, the F-16 fighter jets that Ukraine receives from its European allies and uses against Russian cruise missiles also rely on American ammunition.

Surface-to-air missiles are needed for Ukraine for two reasons. First, they help protect the country's infrastructure from devastating missile strikes.

Every time Ukrainian military reports shooting down a Russian cruise missile, it means that at least two surface-to-air missiles have been fired at it — this is the usual practice of air defense systems.

^{Ukrainian armed forces' F-16 fighter jets are used to intercept air targets, and they also require American missiles. Photo: Getty Images}
Most likely, attempts have also been made to shoot down missiles that were not intercepted, and at least two surface-to-air missiles were used for each attempt.

In some cases, such as when responding to Russia's "Kinzhal" hypersonic missile or "Iskander" ballistic missile strikes, it may only be effective to use PAC-3 missiles from the American Patriot air defense system.

For several months now, Russia has been using special fake drone targets to relieve the load on air defense forces during long-range drone strikes.

Just as Ukrainian fighter jets are fighting against cruise missiles, they have also learned to combat drones with aviation support — using strike and transport helicopters and even light motorized aircraft armed with light machine guns.

Shells

Tactical drones, primarily FPV drones, have become one of the most effective types of weapons on the front.

Since the emergence of drones controlled through thin optical fiber, they have remained resilient to electronic warfare systems. Such drones can halt an armored vehicle column attack and even hunt individual soldiers.

For the Ukrainian armed forces, which are experiencing a serious shortage of personnel, FPV drones have become a real salvation, as they allow maintaining defense even when the Russians have a numerical advantage.

In many sections of the front line, positions are separated by several kilometers of strip. And during an attack, it is necessary to cover this distance to reach enemy positions.

However, drones also have their own drawbacks. First of all, each drone is controlled by a separate operator, and therefore the mass use of drones depends on the number of operators.

Secondly, the production of drones in Ukraine is limited by the amount of explosives — the charges are simply not enough.

Therefore, conventional artillery shells remain one of the most important strike tools and the most demanded resources in the war. If there is a drone to direct strikes in the air, modern howitzers have enough accuracy to destroy various targets.

Every 155 millimeter M107 shell used by the Ukrainian armed forces contains just under seven kilograms of explosives and has a casing made of 36 kilograms of steel fragments.

The supply of ammunition from the US is crucial for Ukraine, but since 2022, the coalition of Ukraine's partner states ("Ramstein group") has significantly expanded ammunition production.

The Worst-Case Scenario

Initially, the cessation of American aid to Ukraine was seen as one of the worst-case scenarios for the development of events, but now the likelihood of this has increased, and preparations need to be made.

Military experts interviewed by the Wall Street Journal have made predictions that, while not apocalyptic, are quite alarming.

"We can probably withstand another year, maybe half a year or a year, to increase ammunition production in Europe [...] We may face losses, possibly losing part of the territory. However, despite the difficulties, we have no choice but to fight," says Mykola Beleskov, a senior analyst at Ukraine's "Return Alive" charity fund.

"Although theoretically Europe could reach the level of US spending, I do not see the possibility of providing all the nomenclature of necessary weapons, and a quantitative problem will quickly arise in some important categories, such as air defense system missiles," says Oskar Jonsson, an expert at the Swedish Defense University.

Replacing air defense missiles is impossible. Increasing their production is also not an easy task — in addition to the purely technological difficulties associated with setting up new production, there are also issues of investment and organization.

From an economic point of view, the European Union is a unique structure, as it does not have a single national military industry like the US or Russia.

Although Europeans may have to solve production volume increase issues simultaneously, they are trying to do this while reforming the military-industrial complex.

As these complex processes reach their conclusion, Ukrainians are managing to find much more effective solutions by replacing artillery and even air defense systems on the front with new types of drones, that is, methods they are good at.