Why did the war start: Is Putin afraid of NATO or is he trying to restore the USSR?

In explaining the war that Vladimir Putin started against Ukraine, there are two opposing views. One of these views justifies Russia morally, while the other portrays it as a complete aggressor.

Against the backdrop of the rapprochement between Trump and Putin, the Russia-Ukraine war is entering a new phase. Now Ukraine can only fully rely on the European Union, while the US is shifting to a neutral position. At the same time, Trump cannot force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia. If Ukraine continues the war for its territorial integrity, the US may not provide assistance to Ukraine, but its leverage to stop the war is very limited. The European Union fears Russia, believing that if Ukraine is defeated, Putin will start a new war.

In this context, the question of what Putin's true motives were is more relevant than ever. Because in a situation where the Ukraine war may end or transition to a lower intensity, what happens next will be determined by Putin's internal motivations.

So far, two opposing motives have been discussed.

Prominent American scholar John Mearsheimer and renowned Columbia University professor Jeffrey Sachs firmly believe that "Putin is only afraid of NATO's expansion, but the idea of restoring the USSR is absurd." These scholars have been expressing this view for many years.

The second, but relatively widespread view is that "Putin's true goal is actually to restore the USSR in one form or another, and NATO is just an excuse." Proponents of this view include many experts, politicians, and states, including the mainstream view in the European Union. There are also many statements by Putin that support this view. For example, Putin's claim that "the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century was the collapse of the USSR" and similar statements are cited as evidence by supporters of the second view. Naturally, Putin has also made statements to justify himself, saying, "I called the collapse of the USSR a tragedy, but restoring the USSR is a fantasy."

So, with what motive did Vladimir Putin invade Ukraine, and what awaits the remaining states after this war ends?

In my opinion, both motives are considered Putin's main motivations. The primary task, or "minimum task," was to prevent NATO's expansion. Historically, NATO has been an organization established against the USSR and what was considered its core, Russia. During the Gorbachev and Yeltsin eras, as well as during Putin's time, NATO has been viewed as a threat to Russia. Russia perceives itself as being encircled. In 2008, after US President George Bush officially invited Ukraine and Georgia to NATO, this caused serious discontent for Putin.

The second motive is to create a geopolitical pole inclined towards Moscow, to build his "team" in the post-Soviet space – seen by Putin as a "maximum task," meaning it should be accomplished whenever possible. Between 2003 and 2014, oil prices in the world market skyrocketed. Russia made trillions in revenue. With large sums of money came great ambitions. Putin organized two major projects in the post-Soviet space. Militarily and strategically, it was the Collective Security Treaty Organization, while economically it was the Eurasian Union. He tried to include all non-NATO member states in the post-Soviet space in these two organizations, lobbying, and exerting both covert and overt pressure. However, due to the Ukraine war, these two projects under Russia's control have also weakened and devalued.

Today, the European Union is in a state of strong anxiety. EU politicians say that the RF continues to arm itself strongly. And this militarization could indicate some plans for Russia after the Ukraine war. Potential target states include Moldova, the Baltic republics, and even Poland. Except for Moldova, the other states are NATO members. However, since Trump came to power, NATO itself is also in a certain crisis. The entry of the US into a senseless war is in doubt due to NATO member states.

Ukraine has not yet been defeated. But it has seriously weakened. Because the US, which was on Ukraine's side, has shifted to a neutral position, even putting pressure on Zelensky by siding with Putin. Putin seems to have achieved his minimum task of stopping NATO.

At this time, even experts close to the state in neighboring Kazakhstan are not hiding their concerns. They say that if Putin completely defeats Ukraine, he will increase pressure on Kazakhstan.

Regardless of what happens, it is a historical task for Central Asian states to show solidarity, unity, and integration. Recently, neighboring Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan reached a complete agreement on border issues. This strengthens the positive environment necessary for mutual trust and cooperation in Central Asia.