Donald Trump's policy towards Europe is becoming increasingly clear: while he is urging European countries to act independently on security matters, he has not wavered in his intention to maintain the strategic influence of the US. If Trump distances Europe from the US, could this lead to a decrease in the need for the US in the long term? Following the debate over financial commitments within NATO, European leaders are moving to enhance their military capabilities. Such topics were discussed in Kun.uz's "Geopolitics" program.
- If Trump distances Europe, will the need for the US decrease later?
Shukhrat Rasul: If we closely follow the recent interviews and press statements of leaders, we see that Germany's future Chancellor Friedrich Merz has not yet made any decisive decisions. However, he has requested nuclear guarantees from France. Trump has not yet said, "We will withdraw nuclear weapons from Germany." He only mentioned NATO's policy regarding financial contributions, saying, "If you do not do what I say, if you do not increase the funds, if you do not allocate more money to NATO." But he did not say, "We will withdraw the weapons." Nevertheless, Friedrich Merz is saying, "We need a new nuclear umbrella," and he is reaching out to France, while Macron seems to be treating this as a positive resolution.
Repeatedly stated is the idea that Europe must have its own armed forces, which is now accelerating after recent events. However, the doors of the White House have not yet closed. This was also stated by the American administration and Trump himself, who said, "Come back when you are ready for peace conditions." European leaders may try to intervene and act as mediators.
One of Zelensky's mistakes was not recalling the events of 2014. Thus, he created a problem for himself out of nowhere.
- Has a "Period of Alliances" begun in the world like during the world wars?
Oybek Sirojov: No, there is still time for that. Europe's power is tied to its economy, and the core of its integration is also related to the economy. However, if we compare economic development with military development, they are on opposing sides. That is, to develop military power, it is necessary to sacrifice certain aspects of the economy and social issues. Today, Europe faces a dilemma. As mentioned above, if it must abandon its existing economic unity to ensure its own security or the security of all of Europe and focus primarily on military matters, how prepared is society for this? How prepared are governments? Will there be enough political resilience for this?
Anvar Yo‘ldoshev: As a result of the meeting at the White House, Europe has become very concerned. EU countries have a gross domestic product of twenty trillion dollars and a population of four hundred fifty million. In this regard, it is not small. But can any of these countries currently meet the military spending demands of the US at five percent? They cannot exceed two percent of GDP for military spending. How prepared is society for this?
Kamoliddin Rabbimov: When Donald Trump was in power for the first time for four years, relations were not completely severed. Some relationships became quite strained, but they were not entirely cut off. At the same time, for the security of the European Union, there is currently no alternative to the US. If America were to withdraw from Europe, it might take the EU 20-30 years to form a significant industry, army, or defense system to ensure its own security. That is, a very long time will be needed because America is fully protecting the European Union. However, the European Union has already realized this. The trend in America is not only related to Donald Trump; significant changes are occurring within America.
Europe, as Ursula von der Leyen said last year, has proposed the establishment of a defense commissioner for the European Union.
Similarly, France and Germany now have projects to establish a defense system centered around their main states. Currently, there are two processes: the first is not to weaken NATO, and the second is for Europe to gradually increase its security while buying time.
